A loan scenario submission is a short summary a broker sends a lender before a full application, asking whether the deal fits a program and at what price. For a non QM lender it should state credit, property, loan amount and value, an income estimate from bank statements, reserves and the specific questions the lender must answer.
What does a non QM loan scenario submission include?
A non QM loan scenario submission includes the facts a lender's scenario desk needs to match the deal to a program and quote a rate: credit score, occupancy, property type, purchase price or value, loan amount, income method and estimate, reserves and any known issues. Leave out anything that does not change eligibility or price.
Sample scenario submission
The example below is for an invented borrower. Every figure is an illustration.
Borrower: self-employed graphic designer, sole owner of an LLC for 4 years, middle credit score 712 Transaction: purchase, primary residence, single family home Price and loan: 540,000 price, 432,000 loan (80 percent LTV) Income method: 12 months business bank statements Income estimate: about 13,900 a month in eligible deposits before the expense factor Reserves: 38,000 in personal savings, seasoned 4 months Known issues: one 30-day late on a credit card 20 months ago; two large client deposits in December Questions: expense factor for a single-owner design business; whether December deposits need sourcing; reserve months required at this LTV
That fits on one screen, which is the goal. A scenario desk working through dozens of requests a day answers the clear ones first.
Estimating income for a loan scenario from bank statements
A scenario income estimate should come from the actual statements, averaged over the lookback the program uses, with obvious non-income deposits removed. A rough figure from the borrower's memory or a tax return will not survive underwriting on a bank statement program. Getting close at the scenario stage avoids a repriced or declined file later.
A quick estimate in five steps
- Collect the full lookback, 12 or 24 months, for each business account.
- Total deposits for each month.
- Remove transfers from the borrower's other accounts, refunds, loan proceeds and other one-time items.
- Average what remains across the months.
- State the expense factor you expect and the net figure, and say both are estimates.
Note anything that could move the number. A month with an unusually large deposit, a falling trend in recent months or a second account you have not seen yet all belong in the "known issues" line. What bank statement analysis gives lenders covers the full analysis an underwriter will later run, which is the standard your estimate should aim at.
Building that estimate by hand takes a while on a busy account. TrueBankFlow totals deposits by month, recalculates the qualifying average as you include or exclude a deposit and flags out-of-pattern items, so a broker can attach a deposit summary to the scenario.
Which questions should a loan scenario submission ask the lender?
A loan scenario submission should ask the questions that decide eligibility and price for this borrower, not a general "does this work?" Name the guideline you are unsure about and ask the lender to answer it in writing. Specific questions get specific answers, and those answers are what you hold the lender to at underwriting.
Useful questions include:
- Which expense factor applies to this business type, and can a CPA letter lower it?
- Are business and personal statements both acceptable, or only one?
- Which deposits need sourcing, and at what size?
- How many months of reserves are required at this loan amount and LTV?
- How does the credit event affect pricing or eligibility?
- What is the rate and price with and without a prepayment penalty, if one applies?
Ask for the reply by email rather than a phone call. A written answer is something the processor can attach to the file and point to if the underwriter reads the guideline differently.
When a scenario approval does not hold at underwriting
A scenario approval is an opinion based on what the broker said, so it stops holding when the full file shows something different. The usual causes are an income estimate that was too high, facts left out of the scenario, rate moves before lock and documents that reveal a second account or a recent debt.
Common gaps between scenario and file
- Income built on all deposits. Transfers and refunds were never removed, so the real figure is lower.
- Unlisted credit events. A collection or late payment that the scenario did not mention.
- Property surprises. A condo with a project issue or a rural property the program limits.
- Reserves that were not seasoned. Money that arrived recently and needs sourcing.
Each of these delays a file near the end, when the borrower has the least patience. Clear to close final checks shows what a lender re-confirms just before closing, and any of these gaps can surface there.
Tracking how scenarios turn out
Over time, compare how many priced scenarios close at the quoted terms. A low share tells you where your estimates run high. The underwriting KPIs worth tracking include pull-through and resubmission rates that make this visible. If you want each scenario's income estimate to come from a deposit summary, request early access to TrueBankFlow.